Researchers at the Alzheimer’s Association International Conference in Denver reported that dementia cases could triple to 152 million by 2050.
Dementia prevalence worldwide is expected to decrease by 6.2 million cases by the year 2050 due to global education access. However, other lifestyle habits such as smoking, high body mass index and high blood sugar are predicted to increase prevalence by nearly the same amount at 6.8 million cases. Together, the two trends come close to cancelling each other out.
Researchers from the Institute of Health Metrics and Evaluation at the University of Washington School of Medicine reported that they estimate the number of people with dementia will nearly triple to 152 million by 2050. The highest prevalence is thought to be in sub-Saharan Africa, North Africa and the Middle East.
To forecast the global dementia prevalence and produce the estimates, researchers leveraged data from 1999 to 2019 from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study. This is a comprehensive set of estimates of health trends worldwide. The study also aims to improve on prior forecasts by incorporating information on trends in dementia risk factors.
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The analysis revealed that the projected cases could mainly be attributed to population growth and ageing although this varies in different regions of the world. It forecasted that dementia prevalence could be attributed to smoking, high body mass index and high fasting plasma glucose. However, education is leading to a decline.
Emma Nichols, a researcher with the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation at the University of Washington School of Medicine said: “These estimates will allow policymakers and decision-makers to better understand the expected increases in the number of individuals with dementia as well as the drivers of these increases in a given geographical setting. The large anticipated increase in the number of individuals with dementia emphasizes the vital need for research focused on the discovery of disease-modifying treatments and effective low-cost interventions for the prevention or delay of dementia onset.”
Using the same data, the researchers estimated that the mortality rates increased by 38.0 per cent between 1990 to 2019. This was published in, Alzheimer’s & Dementia: The Journal of the Alzheimer’s Association.
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The U.S National Institute on Ageing estimates that people over the age of 65 with makeup 16 per cent of the world’s population by 2050. This is an increase of 8 per cent from 2010. Each year an estimated 10 in every 100,000 individuals develop dementia with early-onset globally. In the US, the death rate from Alzheimer’s significantly increased from 16 to 30 deaths per 100,000 which is an 88 per cent increase. The highest mortality rates were found in the rural areas of the East South Central region.
Maria C. Carrillo, Alzheimer’s Association chief science officer, said: “Improvements in lifestyle in adults in developed countries and other places, including increasing access to education and greater attention to heart health issues have reduced incidence in recent years, but total numbers with dementia are still going up because of the ageing of the population. In addition, obesity, diabetes and sedentary lifestyles in younger people are rising quickly, and these are risk factors for dementia.”
Without effective treatments to stop, slow or prevent Alzheimer’s the number will increase beyond 2050 said, Carillo. She highlighted that it is critical to uncover culturally tailored interventions that reduce dementia risks such as lifestyle factors of education, diet and exercise.
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