As many as 1.7 million people could be living with dementia in England and Wales by 2040 –a more than 40 per cent increase on the figure previously forecast, a new study led by researchers at UCL has found.
Previous studies, based on data up to 2010, found that dementia incidence had declined in high-income countries.
However, the new research, published in The Lancet Public Health, suggests that incidence actually started to increase in England and Wales after 2008.
Based on this estimated trend, researchers now project that the number of people with the condition could be significantly higher than expected by 2040.
Principal investigator, Professor Eric Brunner of UCL’s Institute of Epidemiology & Health Care, said: “Our research has exposed that dementia is likely to be a more urgent policy problem than previously recognised – even if the current trend continues for just a few years.
“We have found that not only is the ageing population a major driver of the trend in England and Wales but also the number of people developing dementia within older age groups is increasing.
“We don’t know how long this pattern will continue but the UK needs to be prepared so we can ensure that everyone affected, whatever their financial circumstances, is able to access the help and support that they need.”
The number of people living with dementia in England and Wales was previously predicted to increase by 57 per cent from 0.77 million in 2016 to 1.2 million in 2040.
However, the new research suggests that this figure could be as high as 1.7 million.
In the new study, researchers examined nine waves of data from over 50s living in private households in England between 2002 and 2019.
They found that the number of people with dementia decreased by 28.8 per cent between 2002 and 2008, with figures increasing again by 25.2 per cent between 2008 and 2016.
A similar non-linear pattern was observed across age, sex, and educational attainment subgroups.
Meanwhile, disparities in the rate of dementia incidence were increasing between education groups, with both a slower decline in 2002-2008 and a faster increase after 2008 in participants with lower educational attainment.
If the incidence rate increases as fast as the rate observed between 2008 to 2016, researchers predict that the number of people with dementia in England and Wales will increase to 1.7 million by 2040 – approximately twice the figure in 2023.
This compares to an estimate of one million people if dementia rates had continued to decline as reported in previous studies.
The increase in dementia cases is often attributed to an ageing population.
However, researchers in the new study found that the rate of dementia onset within older age groups is also increasing.
Lead author, Dr Yuntao Chen of UCL’s Institute of Epidemiology & Health Care, said: “It is shocking to think that the number of people living with dementia by 2040 may be up to 70 per cent higher than if dementia incidence had continued to decline.
“Not only will this have a devastating effect on the lives of those involved but it will also put a considerably larger burden on health and social care than current forecasts predict.
“Continued monitoring of the incidence trend will be crucial in shaping social care policy.”
James White, Alzheimer’s Society’s Head of National Influencing, added: “Dementia is the biggest health and social care issue of our time.
“Statistics from this Lancet Public Health study are a stark reminder that, without action, the individual and economic devastation caused by dementia shows no sign of stopping.
“The figures also make it clear that pressure on our already struggling social care system is only going to increase.
“Quality social care can make a huge difference to people’s lives, but we know that people with dementia – who are the biggest users of social care – are struggling with a care system that’s costly, difficult to access, and too often not tailored to their needs.”
